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Watch out for a bounce in the euro


Following recent dips in the Euro, Jeff Keen, fund manager at Waverton Investment Management, offers his view on why it will rebound…

There is a consensus in the market that we are heading for parity between the Euro and the US Dollar. Having run a successful short Euro position in our Global Bond Fund for the past year, we are now starting to reduce the size of the position, taking into account the following positives:

• The ECB has announced a Fed-like open ended QE programme
​• The Euro has fallen sharply over the last 6 months – big help to exporters
• Europe is a big oil importer so even with the weak Euro, energy costs will fall
• Companies have incredibly low financing rates and bank lending is starting to pick up
• The periphery economies are recovering (even Greece)

If the negotiations with the new Greek Government progress quickly to a reasonable compromise we think investors will start to feel less negative about Europe in general and the Euro could have a bounce.

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