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Ken Froot

Investor confidence down by 9.4 points in January to 70.2

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The State Street Global Investor Confidence Index decreased to 70.2 in January, down 9.4 points from December’s revised reading of 79.6.

Confidence among North American investors worsened, with the North American ICI decreasing from 74.5 to 66.8. The European ICI decreased by 2.6 points to 90.3 and the Asia ICI decreased by 10.3 points to 100.2.
 
“As we progress into 2019, our global Investor Confidence Index reflects a warp-speed deterioration in confidence. While confidence itself is not necessarily at an all-time low, this month’s unprecedented low level reflects the extraordinary rate of retreat hastily beaten by professional managers. Noteworthy is that this retreat has continued through the third week in January, even as stock prices had over January partially recovered from Christmas-eve lows. Clearly, managers are voicing persistent concerns around growth globally and in the nowhere-else-to-go tightening trajectories of US monetary and fiscal policies,” says index developer Kenneth Froot (pictured).
 
“What is striking again this month is that while the market narrative focuses on the deteriorating global environment, whether it be weaker data in China or rising recession risks in Europe, investor confidence is deteriorating faster in the US than it is in other regions. This panic, and it is no longer an exaggeration to use this term, is as much about bursting a bubble in US expectations, as it is about weakness in fundamentals outside of the US,” says Michael Metcalfe, senior managing director and head of Global Macro Strategy, State Street Global Markets.

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